Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years

As reported by the BBC, more than 650,000 deaths were registered in the UK in 2022 – nine per cent more than 2019

This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years. Though far below peak pandemic levels, it has prompted questions about why more people are still dying than normal.

Data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations, but a number of doctors are blaming the wider crisis in the NHS.

At the start of 2022, death rates were looking like they’d returned to pre-pandemic levels, but in June excess deaths really started to rise.

On 1 January 2023, the president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine suggested the crisis in urgent care could be causing ‘300-500 deaths a week’.

Some of the excess may be people whose deaths were hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection, as a number of studies have found people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes in the weeks and months after catching Covid.

One type of Covid vaccine has been linked to a small rise in cases of heart inflammation and scarring (pericarditis and myocarditis). But this particular vaccine side-effect was mainly seen in boys and young men, while the excess deaths are highest in older men – aged 50 or more, and these cases are too rare – and mostly not fatal – to account for the excess in deaths.

Finally, figures up to June 2022 looking at deaths from all causes show unvaccinated people were more likely to die than vaccinated people.

While this data on its own can’t tell us it’s the vaccine protecting people from dying – there are too many complicating factors – if vaccines were driving excess deaths we would expect this to be the other way around.