Cancer diagnosis in UK ‘will rise by a third by 2040’

As reported by The Independent, the NHS risks being overwhelmed by sheer volume of new diagnoses, charity warns government

The number of people in the UK diagnosed with cancer will rise by a third by 2040, taking the number of new cases every year to more than half a million for the first time, experts predict. Analysis by Cancer Research UK finds that, on current trends, cancer cases will rise from the 384,000 cases diagnosed every year now to 506,000 in the next 17 years.

The charity warned that the NHS risked being ‘overwhelmed by the sheer volume of new cancer diagnoses’ unless the government acted.

While most of the rise is due to an ageing population – as older people are more likely to get cancer – the charity also said obesity and smoking will contribute to the rise. Around four in 10 cancer cases are preventable – and these two factors are the biggest preventable causes.

If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around a million cancer cases in the UK up to 2040, Cancer Research UK said, while more people are expected to be obese than a healthy weight. Its figures show there will be 208,000 overall cancer deaths in the UK each year in the next 17 years – an increase of almost a quarter.

In total, there could be 8.4m new cases of cancer and 3.5m cancer deaths in the UK between 2023 and 2040. Some 60% of cases – up from 50% now – and 76% of deaths will be in people aged 70 and over, it added.

Cancer Research UK said the figures should act as a warning to the government, because more people will need care. It said cancer survival in the UK lags behind that of comparable countries and the NHS is not on track to achieve its aim of diagnosing three-quarters of cancers at stage 1 or 2 by 2028.

The government’s new ‘major conditions strategy’ is ‘unlikely to provide the road map required to achieve this goal’, the charity said.